It was eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six matches, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough question to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
